Monday, November 03, 2003
Phillies-Astros Trade
The Astros traded P Billy Wagner to the Phillies for P Brandon Duckworth and minor league Ps Taylor Buchholz and Ezequiel Astacio.
This is a very good move for the Phillies. Wagner has established himself as one of the premier relievers in baseball, and represents a significant upgrade over Jose "I'm going to kill Omar Vizquel" Mesa and Mike Williams.
Wagner had a 1.78 ERA last season and had 44 saves in 47 chances. The hard-throwing lefthander has a 2.53 ERA for his career, and has struck out an average of 12.39 batters per 9 innings. All it cost the Phillies was an unproven 27 year old starter (Duckworth), a 24 year old still in Class A, and one more minor leaguer with decent stats (Bucholz-3.55 ERA in Double A).
While I would always value a good starter over a good reliever, a reliever as dominant as Wagner is certainly a worthy acquisition.
Octavio Dotel will probably take over closing duties for the Astros, with Brad Lidge handling the setup role, although there is no reason they can't share the two roles. Bother were effective last year, but the Astros bullpen will still take a big hit.
The question now is what they do with the $9 million they saved in this trade. Andy Pettite is rumored to be interested in returning to his home state of Texas, and this gives Houston the financial flexibility to possibly pursue the veteran starter. Such a move would obviously damage the Yankees rotation, so expect the Yankees to make Pettite an offer he can't refuse.
Pettite had a good, not great year last year, and I don't know if the Astros would improve by spending their money on Pettite instead of Wagner. Pettite's 2003 RSAA (Runs Saves Against Average) was 8, while Wagner had an RSAA of 26*. Of course Pettite will eat up a lot of innings, and one could argue the Astros need more help in their rotation than bullpen. I guess that all this means is the Astros cleared some salary while the Phillies made a major upgrade to their team. Its not fair to fully evaluate the trade withouth seeing what moves come next.
*RSAA is essentially the amount of runs a pitcher saves compared to what an average pitcher would allow in the same number of innings. I got these stats from Lee Sinins' excellent Around The Majors Reports. I recommend you go to www.baseball-encyclopedia.com and subscribe. Also, check out his Baseball Encyclopedia, I plan on picking one up in the coming months.
The Astros traded P Billy Wagner to the Phillies for P Brandon Duckworth and minor league Ps Taylor Buchholz and Ezequiel Astacio.
This is a very good move for the Phillies. Wagner has established himself as one of the premier relievers in baseball, and represents a significant upgrade over Jose "I'm going to kill Omar Vizquel" Mesa and Mike Williams.
Wagner had a 1.78 ERA last season and had 44 saves in 47 chances. The hard-throwing lefthander has a 2.53 ERA for his career, and has struck out an average of 12.39 batters per 9 innings. All it cost the Phillies was an unproven 27 year old starter (Duckworth), a 24 year old still in Class A, and one more minor leaguer with decent stats (Bucholz-3.55 ERA in Double A).
While I would always value a good starter over a good reliever, a reliever as dominant as Wagner is certainly a worthy acquisition.
Octavio Dotel will probably take over closing duties for the Astros, with Brad Lidge handling the setup role, although there is no reason they can't share the two roles. Bother were effective last year, but the Astros bullpen will still take a big hit.
The question now is what they do with the $9 million they saved in this trade. Andy Pettite is rumored to be interested in returning to his home state of Texas, and this gives Houston the financial flexibility to possibly pursue the veteran starter. Such a move would obviously damage the Yankees rotation, so expect the Yankees to make Pettite an offer he can't refuse.
Pettite had a good, not great year last year, and I don't know if the Astros would improve by spending their money on Pettite instead of Wagner. Pettite's 2003 RSAA (Runs Saves Against Average) was 8, while Wagner had an RSAA of 26*. Of course Pettite will eat up a lot of innings, and one could argue the Astros need more help in their rotation than bullpen. I guess that all this means is the Astros cleared some salary while the Phillies made a major upgrade to their team. Its not fair to fully evaluate the trade withouth seeing what moves come next.
*RSAA is essentially the amount of runs a pitcher saves compared to what an average pitcher would allow in the same number of innings. I got these stats from Lee Sinins' excellent Around The Majors Reports. I recommend you go to www.baseball-encyclopedia.com and subscribe. Also, check out his Baseball Encyclopedia, I plan on picking one up in the coming months.
