Friday, January 23, 2004
Bye Bye Rocket-Hello #27
I'll admit it: Roger Clemens had me convinced that he was retired. A guy who I respected as a Red Sox and loved as a he was retired. A guy who I respected as a Red Sox and loved as a Yankee was ready to wrap up a pitching career that is as impressive as nearly any pitcher in the history of baseball.
And then Andy Pettite took less money to go to Houston.
And then the Astros told Clemens he could miss games that he wasn't starting to watch his sons play.
All of a sudden, the Rocket was wearing an Astros cap, drawing the ire of Yankee fans everywhere. I'll miss watching him pitch, and would obviously rather have him on the Yankees. But its not the end of the world.
In fact, let me go out on a limb: If healthy, the Yankees rotation will be much better in 2004 than 2003.
I'll go even further: A healthy Yankees pitching staff will be the best in baseball. And it might not be close.
Am I saying this as a biased Yankees fan? No. I'd like to think I can back this up with objective analysis. Of course there are question marks, and the games need to be played on the field. But with Pettite and Clemens gone, things could be a lot worse. Let's look at why it's pretty damn good to be a Yankee fan right now.
Forget Pettite, Clemens, and the Red Sox for a moment (I'll get back to them later). What baseball fan could argue with these moves.
Trades-
Jeff Weaver for Kevin Brown. Are you serious? Sure Brown has been injured, and Weaver is a young pitcher who did well with the Tigers. But if Brown makes 75% of his starts, this is one of the best baseball trades in a long time. Money is no object to the Yankees, so I don't consider the financial implications at all. Last year, Weaver posted an era of 5.99 in 2003. And he gave up a crushing home run to Alex Gonzalez that will haunt him for years (though I blame Joe Torre for that). He had a -29 RSAA, which means he gave up 29 more runs than the average pitcher would have in the same amount of innings. Only Colby Lewis and Mike Maroth were worse in the AL. He was of no value to the Yankees, and losing him is addition by subtraction.
Kevin Brown on the other hand, was magnificent last year. He had a 2.39 ERA in 211 innings. His 38 RSAA was 6th in the NL, meaning he allowed 38 fewer runs than an average pitcher. For those non-math majors, that means this trade could save the Yankees 67 runs, assuming similar performances from each player. That alone makes the Yankees much stronger than last year.
Nick Johnson, Juan Rivera, and Randy Choate for Javier Vazquez.
I will admit that I'm disappointed to see Johnson go. His patience and power remind me of a young Jason Giambi. I don't anticipate that type of production, but an OBA of over .400 and 25-30 HRs would not be out of the question for him this year. Rivera may be a good player eventually, but there was no room for him in NY.
Vazquez meanwhile, ranks with Mark Prior, Roy Halladay, and Tim Hudson as one of the best you arms in baseball. His 13-12 record in 2003 is misleading, and does not indicate the high level at which he performed. He managed a 3.24 ERA in the best hitter's park in baseball, while striking out 241 batter in 230.2 innings. His 48 RSAA was 2nd in the NL, and 3rd in the majors. Largely overlooked in Montreal, Vazquez should win 18-20 games in NY, and will be a serious contender for the AL CY Young Award. Mark my words.
So a rotation of
Mussina (3.40 ERA/23 RSAA)
Pettite (4.02/8 RSAA)
Clemens (3.91/10 RSAA)
David Wells (4.14/5 RSAA)
Weaver (5.99/-29 RSAA)
Jose Contreras (3.30/8 RSAA)
will now be
Mussina
Vazquez (3.24/48 RSAA)
Brown (2.39/38 RSAA)
Contreras
Jon Lieber (3.70 in 2002)
Contreras is not a sure thing, and Brown and Lieber may have health questions. But Contreras has great stuff, and the other two are completely healthy as of now. I'll take the 2004 Yankee rotation over the 2003 version any day.
And what about the bullpen? Well, it should be as dominating as any in baseball. It includes:
Mariano Rivera (1.66 ERA/21 RSAA)
Paul Quantrill (1.75/19 RSAA)
Tom Gordon (3.16/11 RSAA)
Steve Karsay (3.26 ERA in 2002)
Gabe White (4.05 ERA)
Felix Heredia (2.69 ERA)
While Heredia is a good candidate to drop off this year, Rivera, Quantrill, Gordon, and Karsay are proven commodities, with track records of success. With Jorge DePaula waiting in AAA the Yanks also have a potential swingman/spot starter.
I'd also like to see NY take a shot at El Duque-he would provide valuable insurance in case there is an injury or a starter struggles. At the very least he would be yet another weapon in middle relief. And he brings with him the might Eephus pitch.
What about offense you say? No problem. Gary Sheffield was the best free agent available. Vlad is younger, with a better reputation, but Sheffield has consistently outperformed him, and represents a tremendous upgrade over the 3-headed monster of Karim "mini-Giambi" Garcia, Juan Rivera, and David Delucci. A few stats to back this up. Over the last year, Shefflied is 4th in baseball in Runs Created Against the Average
He has posted an OPS of over 1.000 2 out of the past 3 years, and has a career OPS of .928. While Vlad Guerrero is younger than Sheffield, there is no reason to believe he will become more productive in the next 2-3 years. Would I rather have Guerrero in 5 years? Sure. But for the next 3, my money is on Sheffield to put up MVP-caliber numbers. Also, Guerrero is
1) coming off a year filled with back injuries, and
2) leaving 2003's most hitter-friendly park, believe it or not.
Both are among the top OFs in the game. But criticism indicating that the Yankees got the lesser of the two players is misguided in my mind.
Kenny Lofton provides a leadoff hitter with on-base skills and speed. More importantly, his presence allows free-swinging Alfonso Soriano to move to the middle of the lineup, where his power will be most useful. Also, Bernie Williams can DH most of the time. He had a mediocre year by his standards last year, but with less wear and tear on his body, I expect him to again rank among the best OFs in terms of getting on base and providing occasional power.
The only weakness is Aaron Boone, and possibly Jason Giambi's defense. But frankly, offense is far more important defense. I'd rather have Giambi hit 40 HRs with an OBA over .400 and put up with a few errors than have a slick-fielding, no-hit 1B. And Boone is just about average, and will probably hit 9th in the lineup. My main problem with him is that the Yankees gave up their best pitching prospect (Brandon Claussen) for a player who was not much of an upgrade over Robin Ventura. While he may be the worst Yankee starter, he might be the best #9 hitter since Scott Brosius (will the curse of Scotty end?).
A quick note on Pettite-I'll miss him, mainly because he has been a part of some extremely successful teams. But he is overrated, and overpaid. Few pitchers have benefitted from such great run support. He has the 5th most inflated win loss record of any AL pitcher, based on what his record would be with average run support (courtesy of Lee Sinin's ATM Reports)
Like Clemens, I would rather have him as a Yankee and not an Astro. But I think Vazquez is a huge upgrade over him, and that Brown is an upgrade over Clemens. While Steinbrenner could have offered Pettite a contract sooner, he took less money to play in Houston. I don't believe he had any intention of returning to NY. I guess some people just get sick of winning World Series Championships. I predict about a 14-13 record with an ERA in the mid 4's now that Pettite is playing for a lesser team in a better hitter's park. It's not sour grapes, just a realistic view of his value.
I know the Red Sox are good. Schilling and Foulke are markee acquisitions. But remember-Varitek, Nixon, Mueller, and Ortiz are unlikely to duplicate their career years. Nomar and Pedro will be unhappy with their contract situations. Chemistry can be overrated, but I could see the Yankees having a happier clubhouse than the Sox. (I may do a Yankee-Red Sox position-by-position comparison shortly). So when all is said and done, the 2004 season will look like this:
Yankees over Cubs in 6. And remember where you heard it first.
I'll admit it: Roger Clemens had me convinced that he was retired. A guy who I respected as a Red Sox and loved as a he was retired. A guy who I respected as a Red Sox and loved as a Yankee was ready to wrap up a pitching career that is as impressive as nearly any pitcher in the history of baseball.
And then Andy Pettite took less money to go to Houston.
And then the Astros told Clemens he could miss games that he wasn't starting to watch his sons play.
All of a sudden, the Rocket was wearing an Astros cap, drawing the ire of Yankee fans everywhere. I'll miss watching him pitch, and would obviously rather have him on the Yankees. But its not the end of the world.
In fact, let me go out on a limb: If healthy, the Yankees rotation will be much better in 2004 than 2003.
I'll go even further: A healthy Yankees pitching staff will be the best in baseball. And it might not be close.
Am I saying this as a biased Yankees fan? No. I'd like to think I can back this up with objective analysis. Of course there are question marks, and the games need to be played on the field. But with Pettite and Clemens gone, things could be a lot worse. Let's look at why it's pretty damn good to be a Yankee fan right now.
Forget Pettite, Clemens, and the Red Sox for a moment (I'll get back to them later). What baseball fan could argue with these moves.
Trades-
Jeff Weaver for Kevin Brown. Are you serious? Sure Brown has been injured, and Weaver is a young pitcher who did well with the Tigers. But if Brown makes 75% of his starts, this is one of the best baseball trades in a long time. Money is no object to the Yankees, so I don't consider the financial implications at all. Last year, Weaver posted an era of 5.99 in 2003. And he gave up a crushing home run to Alex Gonzalez that will haunt him for years (though I blame Joe Torre for that). He had a -29 RSAA, which means he gave up 29 more runs than the average pitcher would have in the same amount of innings. Only Colby Lewis and Mike Maroth were worse in the AL. He was of no value to the Yankees, and losing him is addition by subtraction.
Kevin Brown on the other hand, was magnificent last year. He had a 2.39 ERA in 211 innings. His 38 RSAA was 6th in the NL, meaning he allowed 38 fewer runs than an average pitcher. For those non-math majors, that means this trade could save the Yankees 67 runs, assuming similar performances from each player. That alone makes the Yankees much stronger than last year.
Nick Johnson, Juan Rivera, and Randy Choate for Javier Vazquez.
I will admit that I'm disappointed to see Johnson go. His patience and power remind me of a young Jason Giambi. I don't anticipate that type of production, but an OBA of over .400 and 25-30 HRs would not be out of the question for him this year. Rivera may be a good player eventually, but there was no room for him in NY.
Vazquez meanwhile, ranks with Mark Prior, Roy Halladay, and Tim Hudson as one of the best you arms in baseball. His 13-12 record in 2003 is misleading, and does not indicate the high level at which he performed. He managed a 3.24 ERA in the best hitter's park in baseball, while striking out 241 batter in 230.2 innings. His 48 RSAA was 2nd in the NL, and 3rd in the majors. Largely overlooked in Montreal, Vazquez should win 18-20 games in NY, and will be a serious contender for the AL CY Young Award. Mark my words.
So a rotation of
Mussina (3.40 ERA/23 RSAA)
Pettite (4.02/8 RSAA)
Clemens (3.91/10 RSAA)
David Wells (4.14/5 RSAA)
Weaver (5.99/-29 RSAA)
Jose Contreras (3.30/8 RSAA)
will now be
Mussina
Vazquez (3.24/48 RSAA)
Brown (2.39/38 RSAA)
Contreras
Jon Lieber (3.70 in 2002)
Contreras is not a sure thing, and Brown and Lieber may have health questions. But Contreras has great stuff, and the other two are completely healthy as of now. I'll take the 2004 Yankee rotation over the 2003 version any day.
And what about the bullpen? Well, it should be as dominating as any in baseball. It includes:
Mariano Rivera (1.66 ERA/21 RSAA)
Paul Quantrill (1.75/19 RSAA)
Tom Gordon (3.16/11 RSAA)
Steve Karsay (3.26 ERA in 2002)
Gabe White (4.05 ERA)
Felix Heredia (2.69 ERA)
While Heredia is a good candidate to drop off this year, Rivera, Quantrill, Gordon, and Karsay are proven commodities, with track records of success. With Jorge DePaula waiting in AAA the Yanks also have a potential swingman/spot starter.
I'd also like to see NY take a shot at El Duque-he would provide valuable insurance in case there is an injury or a starter struggles. At the very least he would be yet another weapon in middle relief. And he brings with him the might Eephus pitch.
What about offense you say? No problem. Gary Sheffield was the best free agent available. Vlad is younger, with a better reputation, but Sheffield has consistently outperformed him, and represents a tremendous upgrade over the 3-headed monster of Karim "mini-Giambi" Garcia, Juan Rivera, and David Delucci. A few stats to back this up. Over the last year, Shefflied is 4th in baseball in Runs Created Against the Average
RCAA RCAA
1 Barry Bonds 817
2 Manny Ramirez 480
3 Jim Thome 464
4 Gary Sheffield 453
5 Jeff Bagwell 447
6 Jason Giambi 442
7 Edgar Martinez 431
8 Alex Rodriguez 413
9 Chipper Jones 410
10 Mark McGwire 392
He has posted an OPS of over 1.000 2 out of the past 3 years, and has a career OPS of .928. While Vlad Guerrero is younger than Sheffield, there is no reason to believe he will become more productive in the next 2-3 years. Would I rather have Guerrero in 5 years? Sure. But for the next 3, my money is on Sheffield to put up MVP-caliber numbers. Also, Guerrero is
1) coming off a year filled with back injuries, and
2) leaving 2003's most hitter-friendly park, believe it or not.
Both are among the top OFs in the game. But criticism indicating that the Yankees got the lesser of the two players is misguided in my mind.
Kenny Lofton provides a leadoff hitter with on-base skills and speed. More importantly, his presence allows free-swinging Alfonso Soriano to move to the middle of the lineup, where his power will be most useful. Also, Bernie Williams can DH most of the time. He had a mediocre year by his standards last year, but with less wear and tear on his body, I expect him to again rank among the best OFs in terms of getting on base and providing occasional power.
The only weakness is Aaron Boone, and possibly Jason Giambi's defense. But frankly, offense is far more important defense. I'd rather have Giambi hit 40 HRs with an OBA over .400 and put up with a few errors than have a slick-fielding, no-hit 1B. And Boone is just about average, and will probably hit 9th in the lineup. My main problem with him is that the Yankees gave up their best pitching prospect (Brandon Claussen) for a player who was not much of an upgrade over Robin Ventura. While he may be the worst Yankee starter, he might be the best #9 hitter since Scott Brosius (will the curse of Scotty end?).
A quick note on Pettite-I'll miss him, mainly because he has been a part of some extremely successful teams. But he is overrated, and overpaid. Few pitchers have benefitted from such great run support. He has the 5th most inflated win loss record of any AL pitcher, based on what his record would be with average run support (courtesy of Lee Sinin's ATM Reports)
DIFFERENCE PCT AVG SUPPORT PCT
1 Vic Raschi -.139 .550 .689
2 Johnny Allen -.102 .571 .672
3 Allie Reynolds -.097 .533 .630
4 Jack Coombs -.093 .538 .632
5 Andy Pettitte -.084 .573 .656
6 George Earnshaw -.082 .533 .614
7 Chief Bender -.081 .573 .654
8 Dave McNally -.078 .537 .616
9 Mike Cuellar -.078 .539 .616
10 Denny McLain -.075 .523 .598
Like Clemens, I would rather have him as a Yankee and not an Astro. But I think Vazquez is a huge upgrade over him, and that Brown is an upgrade over Clemens. While Steinbrenner could have offered Pettite a contract sooner, he took less money to play in Houston. I don't believe he had any intention of returning to NY. I guess some people just get sick of winning World Series Championships. I predict about a 14-13 record with an ERA in the mid 4's now that Pettite is playing for a lesser team in a better hitter's park. It's not sour grapes, just a realistic view of his value.
I know the Red Sox are good. Schilling and Foulke are markee acquisitions. But remember-Varitek, Nixon, Mueller, and Ortiz are unlikely to duplicate their career years. Nomar and Pedro will be unhappy with their contract situations. Chemistry can be overrated, but I could see the Yankees having a happier clubhouse than the Sox. (I may do a Yankee-Red Sox position-by-position comparison shortly). So when all is said and done, the 2004 season will look like this:
Yankees over Cubs in 6. And remember where you heard it first.
