Monday, January 05, 2004
The Penske File’s 2004 Baseball Hall of Fame Inductees
There was a time when induction into the Baseball Hall of Fame was the greatest honor a player could receive. Then Phil Rizzuto was inducted as a player and the place went to shambles. Ok, that’s not quite true, Mr. Holy Cow is one of many undeserving players enshrined in Cooperstown. Meanwhile, worthy players continue to be denied and show no signs of breaking through. With this in mind, I’ve decided to cast my imaginary ballot in 2004, and thus creating an honor more prestigious than any Cooperstown ceremony. For the time being, I’ll list my choices, and add my analysis/reasoning as time permits. (Note-all statistics are from Lee Sinins’s amazing Sabermetric Baseball Encyclopedia (SBE). Stat definitions can be found here. Also, check out Lee’s Baseball Immortals, a great alternative to Cooperstown, and his daily ATM Reports).
1. Bert Blyleven, RHP 287-250, 3.31 ERA, 3701 K, 344 RSAA
Here is a player whose candidacy is hopefully gaining momentum, as he is perhaps the most deserving player who has been overlooked in recent years. As far as I can tell, his biggest problem is that his 287-250 career record falls short of the arbitrary number of wins (300) necessary to be elected to the Hall. That’s not a huge concern for me, since I think wins are more a product of an entire team’s performance as opposed to being solely due to a pitcher’s performance. Still, those 287 wins are good enough for 24th on the all-time list. His 313 neutral wins are good enough for 14th on the all-time list, showing that he was often the victim of poor run-support.
Blyleven’s more important Hall of Fame credentials lie in other statistics however. He had a 3.31 ERA and 344 RSAA (Runs saved against average. It's the amount of runs that a pitcher saved vs. what an average pitcher would have allowed) for his career, placing him 17th on the all-time list, and ahead of pitchers such as Whitey Ford, Warren Spahn, Gaylord Perry and Jim Palmer. Blyleven ranks 5th all time with 3701 strikeouts, and 9th all time with 60 shutouts. Even more impressive is that he had 27 more shutouts than the average pitcher would have had in the same number of innings, which puts him 5th in that category.
I believe the numbers I just illustrated are more than enough to warrant a place in the Hall of Fame. If that’s enough, there is more evidence that strengthens the case. Using the SBE, a case can be made that Blyleven was the most dominant pitcher in baseball over a 20 year span from 1970-1989. Take a look at the following stats:
This 20-year period of excellence (and dominance) more than fulfills the general rule of thumb that a player must dominate over a 10 year span. Despite his lack of accolades, Blyleven may have been the best pitcher of his time. If I had just one vote (as opposed to 0) it would without a doubt be cast with Blyleven’s name.
2. Paul Molitor, IF/OF/DH, .448 SLG, .369 OBA, .817 OPS, 3319 H, 504 SB, 479 RCAA
Molitor can boast some impressive accomplishments from a long, successful career. Molitor has a career total of 479 RCAA (Runs created above average. A Lee Sinins stat, it's the difference between a player's runs created total and the total for an average player who used the same amount of his team's outs). Molitor produced at an above average level for 18 of his 21 seasons. This combination of excellence and longevity also resulted in the 8th highest hit total in the history of baseball, 3319. He created a total of 1869 runs, tied for 28th all time with Hall of Famer George Brett. Molitor was one of the better baserunners of his time, and his 504 stolen bases are more than all but 34 players. His 605 doubles are 10th best in history, his 1782 runs are 16th best, and Molitor ranks 21st all time with 4854 total bases.
I think Molitor will definitely get in, but he is one of the first players whose candidacy raises questions about whether designated hitters belong in the Hall. 1174 out of his 2683 career games came as a DH, so clearly he was able to play the field for a while. Players like Edgar Martinez will be more interesting to evaluate when they’re eligible (I think he’s a shoo-in). While defense is obviously valuable, I place a far greater emphasis on offense. If two players are similar offensively, I would certainly give an advantage to the player that excelled more on defense. But Molitor is a player who I feel created enough at the plate and on the basepaths to outweigh the fact that he didn’t play the field in over 40% of his games.
3. Ryne Sandberg, 2B, 282 HR, 1061 RBI, 2386 H, 344 SB, .989 Fielding Percentage, 195 RCAA
Ryno is a player I expected to be elected his first time on the ballot. Surprisingly, he is currently 0 for 2, and will have to wait until next year. I do expect him to get in within a year or two, since he had a strong showing this year (60%) and because only Wade Boggs seems to have a good shot of getting among the players who will be eligible for the first time next year.
Sandberg’s raw stats are impressive, but may not be enough to justify his election. Through a series of comparisons among second baseman however, I believe a compelling case can be made.
First of all, Sandberg is the all-time homerun leader among second baseman, with 275 in games he played at 2B. His 716 extra base hits place him in 7th place out of all second baseman, and he is 8th with 3550 total bases and a .458 slugging percentage.
The charts below are all with respect to the league average, and the rankings include second baseman with at least 5000 PA at 2B.
Let me take a minute to say that I do not believe a player should be rewarded because others at his position are weaker offensively. But I do think some comparison to others at the same position is valid. Doing so illustrates that Sandberg is one of the best power hitters to ever play second baseman. While potential Hall of Famers like Craig Biggio, Roberto Alomar, and Jeff Kent, may have had more impressive individual seasons, this should not diminish the accomplishments of Sandberg in his time. Comparisons versus the league average are an excellent way to take into account the overall production during a player’s career, and I believe the numbers I’ve listed for Sandberg make him a deserving candidate.
One last bit of evidence is his prowess as a defensive player. Sandberg had an outstanding fielding percentage of .989. This is tops among all second baseman with at least 1000 games at the position. While I believe offense has a much greater value than defense, defense is still critical, especially for middle infielders. Few players matched Sandberg’s combination of power and defense, and for that, he is deserving of a place in the Hall of Fame.
4. Jim Rice, .LF, .502 SLG, .352 OBA, .854 OPS, 382 HR, 1451 RBI, 2452 H, 266 RCAA.
Close, but no sitar (not yet at least)
Dale Murphy, Alan Trammell, Andre Dawson, Dennis Eckersley.
For some more interesting discussion on this topic, I recommend heading over to the Netshrine Discussion Forum. Look out for my analysis of the Yankees-Red Sox offseason transactions over the next week.
There was a time when induction into the Baseball Hall of Fame was the greatest honor a player could receive. Then Phil Rizzuto was inducted as a player and the place went to shambles. Ok, that’s not quite true, Mr. Holy Cow is one of many undeserving players enshrined in Cooperstown. Meanwhile, worthy players continue to be denied and show no signs of breaking through. With this in mind, I’ve decided to cast my imaginary ballot in 2004, and thus creating an honor more prestigious than any Cooperstown ceremony. For the time being, I’ll list my choices, and add my analysis/reasoning as time permits. (Note-all statistics are from Lee Sinins’s amazing Sabermetric Baseball Encyclopedia (SBE). Stat definitions can be found here. Also, check out Lee’s Baseball Immortals, a great alternative to Cooperstown, and his daily ATM Reports).
1. Bert Blyleven, RHP 287-250, 3.31 ERA, 3701 K, 344 RSAA
Here is a player whose candidacy is hopefully gaining momentum, as he is perhaps the most deserving player who has been overlooked in recent years. As far as I can tell, his biggest problem is that his 287-250 career record falls short of the arbitrary number of wins (300) necessary to be elected to the Hall. That’s not a huge concern for me, since I think wins are more a product of an entire team’s performance as opposed to being solely due to a pitcher’s performance. Still, those 287 wins are good enough for 24th on the all-time list. His 313 neutral wins are good enough for 14th on the all-time list, showing that he was often the victim of poor run-support.
Blyleven’s more important Hall of Fame credentials lie in other statistics however. He had a 3.31 ERA and 344 RSAA (Runs saved against average. It's the amount of runs that a pitcher saved vs. what an average pitcher would have allowed) for his career, placing him 17th on the all-time list, and ahead of pitchers such as Whitey Ford, Warren Spahn, Gaylord Perry and Jim Palmer. Blyleven ranks 5th all time with 3701 strikeouts, and 9th all time with 60 shutouts. Even more impressive is that he had 27 more shutouts than the average pitcher would have had in the same number of innings, which puts him 5th in that category.
I believe the numbers I just illustrated are more than enough to warrant a place in the Hall of Fame. If that’s enough, there is more evidence that strengthens the case. Using the SBE, a case can be made that Blyleven was the most dominant pitcher in baseball over a 20 year span from 1970-1989. Take a look at the following stats:
CAREER
1970-1989
RSAA RSAA
1 Bert Blyleven 371
2 Tom Seaver 321
3 Jim Palmer 289
4 Phil Niekro 241
5 Steve Carlton 239
SHUTOUTS SHO
1 Bert Blyleven 60
2 Nolan Ryan 57
3 Tom Seaver 49
4 Don Sutton 47
5 Jim Palmer 46
STRIKEOUTS SO
1 Nolan Ryan 4845
2 Bert Blyleven 3562
3 Steve Carlton 3550
4 Tom Seaver 3057
5 Don Sutton 2817
WINS W
1 Steve Carlton 282
2 Nolan Ryan 277
3 Don Sutton 273
4 Bert Blyleven 271
5 Phil Niekro 264
NEUTRAL WINS N_W
1 Bert Blyleven 298
2 Nolan Ryan 289
3 Steve Carlton 280
4 Phil Niekro 278
5 Don Sutton 256
This 20-year period of excellence (and dominance) more than fulfills the general rule of thumb that a player must dominate over a 10 year span. Despite his lack of accolades, Blyleven may have been the best pitcher of his time. If I had just one vote (as opposed to 0) it would without a doubt be cast with Blyleven’s name.
2. Paul Molitor, IF/OF/DH, .448 SLG, .369 OBA, .817 OPS, 3319 H, 504 SB, 479 RCAA
Molitor can boast some impressive accomplishments from a long, successful career. Molitor has a career total of 479 RCAA (Runs created above average. A Lee Sinins stat, it's the difference between a player's runs created total and the total for an average player who used the same amount of his team's outs). Molitor produced at an above average level for 18 of his 21 seasons. This combination of excellence and longevity also resulted in the 8th highest hit total in the history of baseball, 3319. He created a total of 1869 runs, tied for 28th all time with Hall of Famer George Brett. Molitor was one of the better baserunners of his time, and his 504 stolen bases are more than all but 34 players. His 605 doubles are 10th best in history, his 1782 runs are 16th best, and Molitor ranks 21st all time with 4854 total bases.
I think Molitor will definitely get in, but he is one of the first players whose candidacy raises questions about whether designated hitters belong in the Hall. 1174 out of his 2683 career games came as a DH, so clearly he was able to play the field for a while. Players like Edgar Martinez will be more interesting to evaluate when they’re eligible (I think he’s a shoo-in). While defense is obviously valuable, I place a far greater emphasis on offense. If two players are similar offensively, I would certainly give an advantage to the player that excelled more on defense. But Molitor is a player who I feel created enough at the plate and on the basepaths to outweigh the fact that he didn’t play the field in over 40% of his games.
3. Ryne Sandberg, 2B, 282 HR, 1061 RBI, 2386 H, 344 SB, .989 Fielding Percentage, 195 RCAA
Ryno is a player I expected to be elected his first time on the ballot. Surprisingly, he is currently 0 for 2, and will have to wait until next year. I do expect him to get in within a year or two, since he had a strong showing this year (60%) and because only Wade Boggs seems to have a good shot of getting among the players who will be eligible for the first time next year.
Sandberg’s raw stats are impressive, but may not be enough to justify his election. Through a series of comparisons among second baseman however, I believe a compelling case can be made.
First of all, Sandberg is the all-time homerun leader among second baseman, with 275 in games he played at 2B. His 716 extra base hits place him in 7th place out of all second baseman, and he is 8th with 3550 total bases and a .458 slugging percentage.
The charts below are all with respect to the league average, and the rankings include second baseman with at least 5000 PA at 2B.
CAREER
2B
RCAA RCAA
1 Rogers Hornsby 951
2 Eddie Collins 752
3 Nap Lajoie 703
4 Joe Morgan 663
5 Charlie Gehringer 444
6 Roberto Alomar 323
7 Craig Biggio 318
8 Lou Whitaker 266
9 Cupid Childs 259
10 Larry Doyle 253
11 Fred Dunlap 251
12 Bobby Grich 234
13 Tony Lazzeri 226
14 Jackie Robinson 224
15 Jeff Kent 220
16 Rod Carew 214
17 Ryne Sandberg 207
18 Chuck Knoblauch 188
19 Joe Gordon 161
20 Hardy Richardson 155
EXTRA BASE HITS DIFF PLAYER LEAGUE
1 Rogers Hornsby 436 844 408
2 Nap Lajoie 355 784 429
3 Charlie Gehringer 194 904 710
4 Jeff Kent 176 651 475
5 Bobby Doerr 160 693 533
6 Joe Morgan 150 813 663
7 Ryne Sandberg 136 716 580
8 Joe Gordon 128 569 441
9 Larry Doyle 127 496 369
10 Del Pratt 121 552 431
HOMERUNS DIFF PLAYER LEAGUE
1 Rogers Hornsby 201 271 70
2 Joe Gordon 146 253 107
T3 Ryne Sandberg 94 275 181
T3 Bobby Doerr 94 223 129
5 Jeff Kent 90 255 165
6 Tony Lazzeri 79 172 93
7 Joe Morgan 61 268 207
8 Bobby Grich 59 204 145
9 Charlie Gehringer 44 184 140
10 Bret Boone 40 221 181
OPS DIFF PLAYER LEAGUE
1 Rogers Hornsby .319 1.080 .761
2 Nap Lajoie .169 .837 .668
3 Eddie Collins .145 .855 .710
4 Charlie Gehringer .105 .884 .779
5 Joe Morgan .101 .819 .718
6 Jeff Kent .095 .866 .771
7 Larry Doyle .089 .765 .675
8 Bobby Grich .084 .800 .717
9 Ryne Sandberg .078 .805 .727
10 Bobby Doerr .076 .823 .747
RUNS CREATED/GAME DIFF PLAYER LEAGUE
1 Rogers Hornsby 6.15 11.32 5.17
2 Nap Lajoie 3.08 7.53 4.44
3 Eddie Collins 2.57 7.22 4.65
4 Joe Morgan 2.34 6.79 4.45
5 Charlie Gehringer 2.00 7.62 5.62
6 Cupid Childs 1.75 8.09 6.34
7 Craig Biggio 1.68 6.77 5.09
8 Larry Doyle 1.29 5.48 4.19
9 Roberto Alomar 1.26 6.19 4.93
10 Ryne Sandberg 1.24 5.82 4.58
SLG DIFF PLAYER LEAGUE
1 Rogers Hornsby .215 .625 .410
2 Nap Lajoie .116 .459 .343
3 Jeff Kent .082 .511 .429
4 Joe Gordon .068 .466 .398
5 Bobby Doerr .065 .461 .396
6 Eddie Collins .062 .430 .367
7 Ryne Sandberg .062 .458 .396
8 Charlie Gehringer .061 .480 .419
9 Larry Doyle .059 .408 .349
10 Tony Lazzeri .050 .468 .418
TOTAL BASES DIFF PLAYER LEAGUE
1 Rogers Hornsby 1582 3783 2201
2 Nap Lajoie 1301 3923 2622
3 Eddie Collins 793 4254 3461
4 Charlie Gehringer 726 4257 3531
5 Ryne Sandberg 599 3550 2951
6 Jeff Kent 510 2777 2267
7 Bobby Doerr 491 3270 2779
8 Larry Doyle 481 2654 2173
9 Joe Morgan 416 3962 3546
10 Rod Carew 387 1912 1525
Let me take a minute to say that I do not believe a player should be rewarded because others at his position are weaker offensively. But I do think some comparison to others at the same position is valid. Doing so illustrates that Sandberg is one of the best power hitters to ever play second baseman. While potential Hall of Famers like Craig Biggio, Roberto Alomar, and Jeff Kent, may have had more impressive individual seasons, this should not diminish the accomplishments of Sandberg in his time. Comparisons versus the league average are an excellent way to take into account the overall production during a player’s career, and I believe the numbers I’ve listed for Sandberg make him a deserving candidate.
One last bit of evidence is his prowess as a defensive player. Sandberg had an outstanding fielding percentage of .989. This is tops among all second baseman with at least 1000 games at the position. While I believe offense has a much greater value than defense, defense is still critical, especially for middle infielders. Few players matched Sandberg’s combination of power and defense, and for that, he is deserving of a place in the Hall of Fame.
4. Jim Rice, .LF, .502 SLG, .352 OBA, .854 OPS, 382 HR, 1451 RBI, 2452 H, 266 RCAA.
Close, but no sitar (not yet at least)
Dale Murphy, Alan Trammell, Andre Dawson, Dennis Eckersley.
For some more interesting discussion on this topic, I recommend heading over to the Netshrine Discussion Forum. Look out for my analysis of the Yankees-Red Sox offseason transactions over the next week.
