Monday, October 11, 2004
Gimme Some Truth
"A-Rod isn't a clutch player."
"The Yankees have no pitching."
"The combination of Schilling and Pedro is too much for any team."
One by one, the myths are falling. All year I listened to fans, critics, and knuckleheads talk about A-Rod not being "clutch." Sure, he had a down year by his lofty standards. He went from having historic seasons to merely having a "great" season. Of course, his numbers went down partly due to the move from Texas to New York. Not the pressure as much as the stadium itself. He and Gary Sheffield were the first righthanded hitting Yankee teammates to ever each hit over 35 home runs in the same season, so they must have done something right. A-Rod was also one of the most efficient base stealers in baseball, swiping 28 in 32 attempts. I understand he struggled with runners in scoring position. But if you're that talented, its more likely a fluke than anything. And as the season wore on, he player better under pressure, making his early season struggles irrelevant.
It doesn't matter what I say about A-Rod, though. His play in the American League Division Series erased the silly notion that he could not perform under pressure. While the title of "best player on the planet" belongs to Barry Bonds, A-Rod is the best player at the moment. This series against the Red Sox will be what people remember, but I have no doubt A-Rod will continue to dominate games like he has his entire career.
Another thing that bothered me in the ALDS was the constant refrain of how the Yankees as a team don't hit well with runners in scoring position. I'm sorry, but the goal for a team is to score runs, and the Yankees excelled at doing so. What Joe Morgan and others fail to realize is that calling 2nd and 3rd base "scoring position" for the Yankees is extremely flawed. For 7 or their 9 starters, the batter's box is scoring position. Ask Juan Rincon if it mattered that Ruben Sierra wasn't in "scoring position" in Game 4. Why is it so much more reliable to get runs via a series of hits as opposed to a single swing of the bat. I'm all about statistical-based analysis, but the misuse of stats is a terrible development in recent years.
Let's look at the second myth that runs rampant around the baseball world. Everyone, Yankee fans included, says that Yankees have no pitching. There is a reason - the Yankees had the worst ERA of any team that won at least 100 games. This statistic is deceiving, however. Think back at some of the pitchers to take the mound in the Bronx this season - Donovan Osborne, Alex Graman, Brad Halsey, Jose Contreras, Bret Prinz, Scott Proctor, Gabe White, C.J Nitkowski, Jorge DePaula....you get the point. So I ask you: what the hell impact does Donovan Osborne have on the American League Championship Series? While the Yankees don't have Brad Halsey to instill fear into the hearts of Red Sox players, they also don't have his 6.47 ERA.
This all got me thinking - how good or bad are the Yankee pitchers? And how do they compare to the Red Sox vaunted pitching staff? Well, you may be a little surprised to learn that these staffs are almost completely even. I calculated the ERA of the pitchers on the Yankee and Red Sox postseason roster. The Yankees' ERA - 4.13. The Red Sox ERA - 4.10. Hmm, looks like there's not that much of a difference after all. I should mention that Fenway is a better hitter's park than Yankee Stadium, so you could argue the Red Sox pitching is a little better. But the drastic difference everyone seems to think exists is just not there. Also, pitchers like Mike Mussina, Jon Lieber, and Tanyon Sturtze are pitching significantly better than they did earlier in the season. So while El Duque may or may not be a factor, I believe the Yankees stack up quite nicely to the Red Sox.
But what about the dynamc duo of Curt Schiling and Pedro Martinez? Oh god, how could anyone beat Curt and Pedro? Schilling is good. He's damn good. Unbeatable he is not. As a matter of fact, his ERA against the Yankees this year was a pedestrian 4.82. Besides having a 2.14 September ERA, Mussina's ERA against the Sox this year is a solid 3.50. I'm realistic enough to know that the Yankees may very well lose up to two or three games in this series. But let's be sure to look at this duo for what it is, and not what is was supposed to be. Because quite frankly, Pedro does not exactly intimidate the Yankees. I may be wrong, but I believe the Red Sox are 11-19 against the Yankees in games started by Pedro. We college graduates have a word for that - mediocre. This is not a biased Red Sox hater spewing nonsense either. There is a very strong case to be made for Pedro in his prime as the most dominant pitcher in baseball history. In terms of ERA vs. the league average, baserunners per 9 IP, winning percentage, etc, this man was in a league of his own. As soon as he faces the Yankees, that all becomes irrelevant. If he pitches a gem, the Yankees pitch better. If he's off a little, the Yankees pound him. Of course, it wasn't just the Yankees beating him this year. A 3.90 ERA is above average. It is not what you expect from Pedro though. And it will not be enough to advance to the World Series.
So after all this rambling, am I guaranteeing a NYY victory? Not quite. But I fully expect the Bronx Bombers to emerge with yet another American League pennant. Unlike Andy Pettite, some people never get tired of dominance. The Yankees do not just have history on their side, they have a more talented, more productive team. Over 162 games, the Yankees proved to be a more productive team. For all the hype, the Red Sox are just a really good 2nd place team. I'm not naive enough to think the Red Sox can't win, as anything can happen in the playoffs. All I can do is watch the best rivalry in sports and hope for the best - call me crazy, but this may be the year the real curse ends.
Yanks in 6.
"A-Rod isn't a clutch player."
"The Yankees have no pitching."
"The combination of Schilling and Pedro is too much for any team."
One by one, the myths are falling. All year I listened to fans, critics, and knuckleheads talk about A-Rod not being "clutch." Sure, he had a down year by his lofty standards. He went from having historic seasons to merely having a "great" season. Of course, his numbers went down partly due to the move from Texas to New York. Not the pressure as much as the stadium itself. He and Gary Sheffield were the first righthanded hitting Yankee teammates to ever each hit over 35 home runs in the same season, so they must have done something right. A-Rod was also one of the most efficient base stealers in baseball, swiping 28 in 32 attempts. I understand he struggled with runners in scoring position. But if you're that talented, its more likely a fluke than anything. And as the season wore on, he player better under pressure, making his early season struggles irrelevant.
It doesn't matter what I say about A-Rod, though. His play in the American League Division Series erased the silly notion that he could not perform under pressure. While the title of "best player on the planet" belongs to Barry Bonds, A-Rod is the best player at the moment. This series against the Red Sox will be what people remember, but I have no doubt A-Rod will continue to dominate games like he has his entire career.
Another thing that bothered me in the ALDS was the constant refrain of how the Yankees as a team don't hit well with runners in scoring position. I'm sorry, but the goal for a team is to score runs, and the Yankees excelled at doing so. What Joe Morgan and others fail to realize is that calling 2nd and 3rd base "scoring position" for the Yankees is extremely flawed. For 7 or their 9 starters, the batter's box is scoring position. Ask Juan Rincon if it mattered that Ruben Sierra wasn't in "scoring position" in Game 4. Why is it so much more reliable to get runs via a series of hits as opposed to a single swing of the bat. I'm all about statistical-based analysis, but the misuse of stats is a terrible development in recent years.
Let's look at the second myth that runs rampant around the baseball world. Everyone, Yankee fans included, says that Yankees have no pitching. There is a reason - the Yankees had the worst ERA of any team that won at least 100 games. This statistic is deceiving, however. Think back at some of the pitchers to take the mound in the Bronx this season - Donovan Osborne, Alex Graman, Brad Halsey, Jose Contreras, Bret Prinz, Scott Proctor, Gabe White, C.J Nitkowski, Jorge DePaula....you get the point. So I ask you: what the hell impact does Donovan Osborne have on the American League Championship Series? While the Yankees don't have Brad Halsey to instill fear into the hearts of Red Sox players, they also don't have his 6.47 ERA.
This all got me thinking - how good or bad are the Yankee pitchers? And how do they compare to the Red Sox vaunted pitching staff? Well, you may be a little surprised to learn that these staffs are almost completely even. I calculated the ERA of the pitchers on the Yankee and Red Sox postseason roster. The Yankees' ERA - 4.13. The Red Sox ERA - 4.10. Hmm, looks like there's not that much of a difference after all. I should mention that Fenway is a better hitter's park than Yankee Stadium, so you could argue the Red Sox pitching is a little better. But the drastic difference everyone seems to think exists is just not there. Also, pitchers like Mike Mussina, Jon Lieber, and Tanyon Sturtze are pitching significantly better than they did earlier in the season. So while El Duque may or may not be a factor, I believe the Yankees stack up quite nicely to the Red Sox.
But what about the dynamc duo of Curt Schiling and Pedro Martinez? Oh god, how could anyone beat Curt and Pedro? Schilling is good. He's damn good. Unbeatable he is not. As a matter of fact, his ERA against the Yankees this year was a pedestrian 4.82. Besides having a 2.14 September ERA, Mussina's ERA against the Sox this year is a solid 3.50. I'm realistic enough to know that the Yankees may very well lose up to two or three games in this series. But let's be sure to look at this duo for what it is, and not what is was supposed to be. Because quite frankly, Pedro does not exactly intimidate the Yankees. I may be wrong, but I believe the Red Sox are 11-19 against the Yankees in games started by Pedro. We college graduates have a word for that - mediocre. This is not a biased Red Sox hater spewing nonsense either. There is a very strong case to be made for Pedro in his prime as the most dominant pitcher in baseball history. In terms of ERA vs. the league average, baserunners per 9 IP, winning percentage, etc, this man was in a league of his own. As soon as he faces the Yankees, that all becomes irrelevant. If he pitches a gem, the Yankees pitch better. If he's off a little, the Yankees pound him. Of course, it wasn't just the Yankees beating him this year. A 3.90 ERA is above average. It is not what you expect from Pedro though. And it will not be enough to advance to the World Series.
So after all this rambling, am I guaranteeing a NYY victory? Not quite. But I fully expect the Bronx Bombers to emerge with yet another American League pennant. Unlike Andy Pettite, some people never get tired of dominance. The Yankees do not just have history on their side, they have a more talented, more productive team. Over 162 games, the Yankees proved to be a more productive team. For all the hype, the Red Sox are just a really good 2nd place team. I'm not naive enough to think the Red Sox can't win, as anything can happen in the playoffs. All I can do is watch the best rivalry in sports and hope for the best - call me crazy, but this may be the year the real curse ends.
Yanks in 6.
